Paradigms of World History and American Technology

Berglund Authority Level 4


by Jeffrey Barlow <barlowj@pacificu.edu>

One of our continuing concerns in studying the Internet at the Berglund Center has been to understand it in an international context. Particularly with regard to the process of Globalization.[1]  Our first issue of 2005, our fifth year of publication, seems a good time to review this topic.

Simply put, it is our opinion, backed we think by considerable evidence, that the Internet itself is very healthy, viewed from a global perspective. But if we are to think locally, Americans should not be overly optimistic about their continued dominance of the Internet.

Our perspective is colored by the period that we recently spent in China, from December 21 to January 24, working at our partner institution, Wenzhou Medical College.  Working in Wenzhou, a short hop from Shanghai, the center of the Chinese economy, was very informative.

This was a particularly good time to be in China, because the Chinese fiscal year corresponds to the calendar year.  During December-January most important political and economic statistics are updated and analyzed.

Let us first view the Internet as a whole, based on the following statistics. [2]

INTERNET USAGE STATISTICS - The Big Picture

WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS 

Internet Usage,
Latest Data

Usage Growth
2000-2005

Penetration
(% Population )

12,937,100

186.6 %

1.4 %

266,742,420

133.4 %

7.4 %

230,923,361

124.0 %

31.6 %

17,325,900

227.8 %

6.7 %

218,400,380

102.0 %

66.5 %

55,279,770

205.9 %

10.1 %

15,838,216

107.9 %

47.4 %

817,447,147

126.4 %

12.7 %

NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and Population Statistics were updated on February 3, 2005. (2) For detailed regional data, click on each World Region. (3) Demographic (population) numbers are based on data contained in the web sitegazetteer.de. (4) Internet usage information comes from data published byNielsen//NetRatings, byInternational Telecommunications Union, by NICs and other reliable sources. (5) Data from this site may be cited, giving the due credit and establishing an active link back toInternetWorldStats.com. (6) For navigation help and definitions, see theSite Surfing Guide.

We think that these statistics make several important points.  Clearly, North America is still the center of the Internet if we view either gross number of users or percentage of population using the Internet as an important index. But we should note that if current trends continue, the future belongs to Asia.  Even with its enormous inequalities, ranging from booming China to many backward failing states, Asia’s growth in Internet usage was a startling 133.4% over the period 2005, compared to 102% for North America.  As Asia has a penetration rate of only 7.4%, and North America a rate of 66.5%, the potential for expansion lies with Asia.

To analyze China in particular, let’s take what we believe to be the most important statistic, Broad Band usage.  China has 43 million broadband subscribers as of 2005. [3]

The best data we can find for the United States is a projection by the Yankee Group which estimates U.S. broadband subscribers at 41 million for 2005. [4] Not only has China surpassed the United States in total number of broadband users, but given China’s huge pool of potential users the future is again clear.

It might be that these are simply not important issues; who cares if more Chinese use broadband than Americans? One answer, however, is the American film and music industries.  While I was in China the country doubled the number of Internet nodes, placing four new high-speed access points in Shanghai.  These were said to be an increase not only in the size of the “pipe”, but also in its speed, utilizing a new Chinese router technology.

My Internet access times, a day away from these new nodes by train or automobile, immediately speeded up.  One of the announcements which I viewed on television stated that operating at top speed the new system could download a complete film in less than one minute.

The implications of the fact that more Chinese now use broadband than Americans is, among other things, that the protection of American intellectual property will be far more complicated as the American voice becomes increasingly a minority one, not only when governments meet to manage the Internet, but when private companies look at potential audiences.

Clearly some of these changes are inevitable ones, there will always be more Chinese than Americans, and we should not begrudge their modernization nor focus on potential “threats” rather than seeing the growth of a huge new market.

However, it is legitimate for Americans to ask what their government is doing to encourage research and development that will keep us abreast of Chinese router technology and will further the penetration of broadband into American homes.

We should also understand that the cultural impact of the Internet also will change rapidly.  Many Americans (as well as Canadians and English people) are comforted by the fact that the language of the Internet is, and likely always will be, English.  However, as David Crystal argues in a book reviewed elsewhere in this issue, there are various forms of English, and the Internet is producing a new version which will not be “owned” by any particular national group, regardless of their first languages. [5]

We think that globalization is proceeding apace, but that the American response is relatively a thoughtless one, certainly compared to the policies developed by the leadership groups in other nations, such as China’s leaders, principally electrical engineers. [6]

Footnotes:

[1] For a series of references found in our pages, see: http://www.google.com/search?ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=globalization&btnG=Google+Search&domains=bcis.pacificu.edu&sitesearch=bcis.pacificu.edu

[2] These are found at: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm and confirm to our own personal experience.

[3] See: http://www.internetworldstats.com/asia/cn.htm

[4] See: http://www.internetworldstats.com/am/us.htm

[5] See the review of David Crystal, Language and the Internet at: http://bcis.pacificu.edu/journal/2005/01/crystal.php

[6] See also: Jeffrey Barlow “China Boots Up” http://bcis.pacificu.edu/journal/2004/06/edit.php